The Human Truth Foundation

The Population of the Earth

By Vexen Crabtree 2019


#demographics #education #life #population

Since 1930 the world's population has risen from 2 billion, and now approaches 8 billion. There are many people alive today who have seen our numbers triple in their lifetime, and a growing number of people who have seen it quadruple. Food production and infrastructure is not keeping up. We are not going to be saved by luck or by miracle - "demographic changes are much more certain than many other long-term predictions" writes one sociologist1. Rather than leaving the future to blind population growth, things can be done - the United Nations reports that, in particular, improved education (especially, women's education) brings down uncontrolled growth2. Overpopulation is not uniform: some developed countries have begun to see contracting numbers. But what happens when an increasingly overpopulated poor world becomes increasingly contrasted against a rich, ageing, shrinking world? Wherever possible, we need to keep spreading the message about maintaining sensible birth rates, and countries with lower rates need to accept migration from elsewhere, in order to smoothen out the demographics crises.

1. Overpopulation


1.1. The Increasing Population of the Earth


Source: United Nations (2017)3

Our species' population rose to 1 billion around 1830, and one hundred years later, it had doubled. Since then, since 1930, the rate of increase has been phenomenal and we are now at over 7.7 billion. "Before the 20th century, no human had lived through a doubling of the human population, but there are people alive today who have seen it triple"4. Note the massive difference between industrialized countries and developing countries. The scales are very, very imbalanced.

Population Matters (formerly called the Optimum Population Trust) statistics on the UK population, and United Nations reports on the massive increase of world population, inform us that:

By 2031 [...] our population will have risen by 10 per cent to almost 66 million - nearly six million more - while calculations by the Optimum Population Trust suggest that at current rates there will be 10 million more Britons, equivalent to nearly one and a half Londons, by 2050. The UN, meanwhile, says global population will increase from 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by mid-century.

The Independent (2005)5

From 1960 the total population of the Earth more than doubled, from 3.02 billion in 1960 to 6.47 million in 20056. Every decade, the rate of increase has increased. The growth of the Human population on the Earth is still accelerating. Faster and faster growth, a population explosion, continues. In Global Trends, Michael J. Mazarr writes that "only after 2020 might annual additions to world population begin to decline"7. The population will continue to increase for hundreds of years, but, there are signs that in the future the rate of increase will start slowing down.

1.2. The Effects of Overpopulation8

Our ability to manage our rising population is not keeping pace with the rise in our numbers. There are many negative sides to population growth, already witnessed throughout the world in history. How many resources does it take to feed, water, shelter and educate 200,000 people? That's how much our population grows every day. As long as this rate continues, all of the following problems continue to get worse:

For a breakdown of these points, see: The Effects of Overpopulation.

1.3. Misguided Fears and Counter-Arguments18

Given the number of warnings about population, spanning history now for 4,000 years, is it time that we forgot our fears, and learned to concentrate on symptoms one at a time? Are concerns about overpopulation misguided?

But one can also draw a different conclusion - that fixating on population numbers is not the best way to confront the future. People packed into slums need help, but the problem that needs solving is poverty and lack of infrastructure, not overpopulation. Giving every woman access to family planning services is a good idea - 'the one strategy that can make the biggest difference to women's lives' [says Shailaja Chandra].

"Seven Billion" by Robert Kunzig (2011 Jan)19

Despite the fact that family planning services is population control, there are arguments that we will simply, somehow, manage to cope with our ever-increasing population. These are:

  1. We produce enough food, but the problem is with distribution. We will find ways of distributing food more evenly and fairly.

  2. We will find ways to increase food productivity.

  3. Poverty is the real issue, and economic boosts will overcome most problems to do with overpopulation.

  4. There is plenty of room left on the planet.

  5. God will provide a solution, as It told us to go forth and multiply in the first place.

  6. Waste disposal, burial grounds, water supplies, raw resources and other material supplies can all be stretched further and further due to continued gains in efficiency and as results from scientific breakthroughs.

But all of these ideas have shortcomings. In the same order:

  1. Campaigners for sustainable food production often point out that the globalisation of food is one of the biggest causes of increased resource usage (i.e., transport and fuel costs) and, health campaigners point out that adding salt and preservatives to food (to make it last during transport) is one of the biggest causes of pandemic health problems. Local food production means healthier food and less strain on the planet and becomes more and more important the more our populations grow.

  2. Overexploitation of soil and the mass conversion of forested land for agriculture has caused the degradation of ecosystems, resulting in massive drops in soil quality. As a result, soil erosion and increased flooding (both caused from lack of trees) has devastated crop production in many countries, especially in those places where overpopulation led to soil overexploitation. Our efforts to increase food production are often at the expense of long-term production viability. The most advanced countries and the biggest staple agricultural producers have not managed to increase overall crop production for decades, leading some to conclude that efficiency ceilings are already being reached. Not only that, but stocks of food in forests and the oceans have dwindled and many fish species are no so endangered that they cannot be fished. Food production has peaked in some areas, and is falling in others due to overexploitation, so it is hard to imagine that production gains can continually be made.

  3. Unfortunately, increasing poverty increases resource usage, and puts additional burdens on the planet. The best way to reduce poverty is to keep families small, and to prevent overpopulation. The poorest countries are already the most overpopulated ones. Maintaining a sensible population is the easiest way to equalize the distribution of wealth and prevent goods (and food) from becoming too expensive for the poor. The more people there are, the more expensive food is, and the more the poor suffer. Poverty reduction needs to go hand in hand with population control.

  4. All fertile land is being used for produce already, and, all sensible places to live have been taken. Expansion of housing on to flood plains and areas of natural disaster have led to increasingly serious damages to lives and livelihoods as a result of floods, volcanoes and earthquakes. All housing expansions are now at a cost to nature, and it is upon nature that we rely for food production and environmental health.

  5. Given the record of divine natural disasters and divinely endorsed cataclysms, this seems to be an unlikely appeal.

  6. In nearly all causes, these methods result in higher costs and worse quality of life. Cemeteries and burial grounds are filling up and all waste requires space and expense to process. Some gains will be made, but, increasingly expensive research is now needing to be spent on this. It is better to control population and allow research to go into matters that increase quality of life rather than going into dealing with the side-effects of overpopulation. Prevention is better than cure, especially when the improvements to efficiency are increasingly small and increasingly expensive.

1.4. Birth Control18

#birth_control #disease #dogma #health #philippines #population #religion #sex #sexuality

Few people doubt the severity of the problem that overpopulation presents for this planet. Its consequences are poverty, famine, disease and death, sometimes on very large scales. Minor problems include overcrowding, strained infrastructure and social instability. By facilitating contraception and women's medical services we enable family planning. "Allowing women to plan their pregnancies also leads to healthier outcomes for children. A recent study showed that if all births were spaced at least two years apart, the number of deaths among children younger than five would decline by 13%. The number would decline by 25% if there were a three-year gap between births"20. Making birth control accessible to all is a moral requirement for anyone who has the power to help. It is inconsistent, for example, to say that contraception and abortion is "murder" whilst ignoring the fact that poverty and overpopulation are far bigger killers.

Aside from population control, "the health benefits of contraceptive use are substantial. Contraceptives prevent unintended pregnancies, reduce the number of abortions, and lower the incidence of death and disability related to complications of pregnancy and childbirth"20. The numbers of abortions that are prevented by contraception is staggering. A Guttmacher Institute report on the developing world predicts that "in 2012, use of modern contraceptives in the developing world will prevent 218 million unintended pregnancies, which, in turn, will avert 55 million unplanned births, 138 million abortions (40 million of them unsafe), 25 million miscarriages and 118,000 maternal deaths. It will also prevent an estimated 1.1 million neonatal deaths (those within 28 days of birth) and 700,000 postneonatal infant deaths (those from 28 days to one year of age)"20. Condoms help prevent the spread of disease - their effect is strong enough that long-term use by a community can gradually eradicate strains of sexually transmitted diseases from the community. Venereal disease causes unimaginable suffering and can affect the purely innocent. Babies are frequently infected with the diseases of the parents; in this way, the prevention of disease with contraception is vital because once women in a local area are infected with a disease, children will also be directly infected. In the case of incurable diseases, such an event can lead to unsurmountable suffering. Such a terrible state of affairs is prevented by the correct use of contraceptives such as condoms. The number of women with unmet needs for contraception in the developing world is still increasing - between 2008 and 2012 the figure rose from 153 million to 162 million20. Those 69 countries are the ones that are least able to support growing populations.

Some of the religious traditions have presented recurring obstacles to open discussion of certain kinds of birth control at UN population conferences. These religious groups are associated largely with Islam, Roman Catholicism, and evangelical Christianity.

"Religion and Ecology"
Mary Evelyn Tucker (2011)21

Religious opposition to abortion, birth control and contraception: Despite the practical necessity of birth control, the benefits of disease prevention, the moral responsibility we have towards the future of our children and the responsibility we have with regards to the stewardship of our planet, many religions have opposed birth control for various superstitious reasons. On the other side of the fence, it is worth knowing that all of the pioneers of contraception were freethinkers22,23 (that is, people who are opposed to the influence of organized religion on people´s opinions and beliefs). Why have religions determined to prevent family planning? The answer is in a kind of survival of the fittest amongst religions themselves. As most religious people simply abide by the religion of their parents24, religions that encourage parents to have more children will attain a stronger and longer-lasting base of adherents. Barber (2011) notes that religions promote fertility by encouraging marriage at a much earlier age than amongst the non-religious25.

Bearing this out is Catholicism, which has an infamously strict suite of dogmas that forbid all kinds of birth control. The Roman Catholic Church is the most notable, powerful and active organisation that lobbies against birth-control wherever it can, internationally. Thankfully Most Catholics routinely ignore the Church on this issue, especially in educated and developed countries, but there are still plenty of fast-growing countries where the Catholic Church is still prospering the old-fashioned way. It took the government of the Philippines 13 years to force through legislation to allow government-funded contraception and for sex education in schools because of the strength of the opposition of the Catholic Church there - in a country where 11 women die of pregnancy-related problems every day. The Catholic Church "ferociously" opposed it, warning of moral and social collapse, the destruction of family life, and divine wrath, if it was passed. The bill is considered "a major step toward reducing maternal deaths and promoting family planning in the impoverished country, which has one of Asia's fastest-growing populations. [...] The United Nations said early this year that the bill would help reduce an alarming number of pregnancy-related deaths, prevent life-threatening abortions and slow the spread of AIDS"26.

The page contents of "Abortion, Birth Control and Contraception" by Vexen Crabtree (2013) is:

2. Which Countries are Most Populated, and Which Have the Highest Fertility Rates?27

#demographics #overpopulation #population

Highest Fertility Rates (2013)28
Pos.2.0 is best28
175Timor-Leste (E. Timor)5.99
171Burkina Faso5.77
170Congo, DR5.54
162Equatorial Guinea5.02
Population (2012)29
Pos.The Population of the Earth
20Congo, DR69.6m

The fertility rate is, in simple terms, the average amount of children that each woman has. The higher the figure, the quicker the population is growing, although, to calculate the rate you also need to take into account morbidity, i.e., the rate at which people die. If people live healthy and long lives and morbidity is low, then, 2.0 approximates to the replacement rate, which would keep the population stable. If all countries had such a fertility rate, population growth would end. The actual replacement rate in most developed countries is around 2.1.

The Economist in 2008 pointed out some of the great improvements in the fertility rate that are being witnessed in some regions of the world. Despite this, because our overall numbers are still going up, the population still continues to rise. But if trends like these - driven mostly by greater education and economic stability - continue, then, it will be to everyone's benefit.

In East Asia and the Pacific, the [fertility rate] was 5.4 in 1970. Now it is 2.1. In South Asia, the fertility rate halved (from 6.0 to 3.1). In the world as a whole, fertility has fallen from 4.8 to 2.6 in a generation (25 years). [...] The most important exception to the rule of declining fertility is sub-Saharan Africa.

"The world's silver lining" in The Economist (2008 Jan 26)30

3. Longevity

#longevity #population

3.1. The Demographics Crises (The Increase in Life Expectancy is Raising the Old Age Dependency Ratio)

#economics #germany #hong_kong #italy #japan #longevity #pensions #population #portugal

Throughout Human history, grandparents have been vastly outnumbered by the young. Now, some countries are entering a new era of wisened human demographics where the balance in reversed: A mixture of increasing longevity and better medical care means that the numbers of those in old-age (65+) are increasing31. Japan had been ahead of the trend for a great while; it is followed by Italy, Germany, Portugal and Hong Kong32. The old-age dependency ratio is the division of old-age numbers by those of working age (15-64); 12 countries have a ratio of over 4 to 10. Over the last few decades it has been having a major impact on several social services: Pensions, housing, health services and social structures are struggling to cope. In the case of pensions, the whole system is threatening to fail as it becomes impossibly expensive. In coming generations, our ideas of work, retirement, socialisation and education will have to change.

There are two answers: Prevent runaway population growth as is still the case in most countries (such growth delays the problem, but makes it worse in the end), and, spread out the young through open labour markets - immigration increases tax revenues to pay for services for the old, and, also provides the answer to the labour shortage that threatens aging countries - Japan's impressive automation robots are slow to develop and expensive. No doubt, the true economic solutions to such complicated problems have not yet been found.

"The Demographics Crises (The Increase in Life Expectancy is Raising the Old Age Dependency Ratio)" by Vexen Crabtree (2017)

3.2. The Genetic Part of Longevity

Book CoverThat genes play an important role in longevity has been demonstrated on many fronts. Family studies, for example, show that the male siblings of centenarians are seventeen times more likely than other men born around the same time to live to one hundred. Female siblings are eight times as likely to do so. One theory holds that the reason is that people who reach extreme old age have genetic variations throughout their genome that slow the basic mechanisms of aging and result in a decreased susceptibility to age-associated diseases. This theory is supported by the finding that throughout life the children of centenarians are significantly healthier than the children of people who die at an average age.

"Babies by Design: The Ethics of Genetic Choice" by Ronald M. Green (2007)33

3.3. Why Do We Age?

[Dr Sweeney] points out that attempts to understand aging in terms of evolution may fail because natural selection doesn't operate during the postreproductive years. The diseases and morbidity of aging may be accidental results of other biological processes - what Sweeney calls nature's "neglect" or "lack of forethought" for a time of life no longer under selective pressure.

"Babies by Design: The Ethics of Genetic Choice" by Ronald M. Green (2007)33

Not all of the effects of ageing are a simple case of biological senescence. Some is cultural; it seems that we learn how to decline during old age. Take the cultures of the far East where age is given a higher amount of authority; the effects of old age in those countries is different.

Older adults in China, where positive images of aging prevail and the memory decline commonly observed in Western countries [...]

"Social Psychology" by David Myers (1999)34

3.4. Progress in Longevity

Book CoverAlthough both preventive medicine and direct intervention can be effective in thwarting disease, prevention is generally less aversive and less expensive. It can also be more effective. Many people are surprised to learn that relatively little of the improvement in health and longevity during the last two hundred years is due to drug and surgical treatment of sick individuals. Most of the gain is attributable to various preventive measures such as improved sewage disposal, water purification, the pasteurization of milk, and improved diets. In fact, our greater longevity is mainly due to our increased chances of surviving childhood, chances increased by these very preventive measures and by the introduction of vaccines for the infectious diseases of youth. The life expectancy of those who make it to adulthood has not changed much during the last hundred years. The life expectancy of a 45-year-old man in the nineteenth century was roughly 70 years, a figure not much different from that of today.

"How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life" by Thomas Gilovich (1991)35

3.5. Setbacks to Long Life


3.6. Sociological Data on Life Expectancy Versus Religion37

#china #christianity #islam #japan #USA

Christians are not the only ones who once claimed that longevity amongst believers was a sign that their religion was true - although we have seen that Muslim proponents have not made that claim. The author of "Zen - The Religion of the Samurai" (1913)38, Kaiten Nukariya38, states quite confidently that "history proves that most Zen masters enjoyed a long life in spite of their extremely simple mode of living"39, and also explains the long-lasting influence of Zen in China and Japan and elsewhere. Although it is hard to examine claims that are made for history so long ago, we can look at the world now and see if people's religions affects their long-term health. Unfortunately, the results do not come out favourably for the religious.

Scattergraph of longevity and religiosity by country

Source: Gallup (2009) and UNHDR (2011)40

Only countries that are still very religious have low life expectancy of below 65, and, all countries that have lost religion, or are losing it, have great life expectancy (over 65). There are only two countries that have a religiosity rate over 60% who have life expectancy of over 80yrs. The USA typically skews statistics like this, as it is the only highly developed country with high numbers of people who consider religion to be important in their lives (65%), and, also suffers from relatively seriously health problems compared to other rich countries. But it isn't enough of an outlayer to buck the trend. On average those who are born in countries that are not very religious enjoy 10 years longer life. Of all the countries that have life expectancy of over 80 years at birth, their average religiosity rate is merely 41.7%. Some statistics in some countries (USA show that religious people in those countries have better health than their neighbours, however, it seems if the religious increase in numbers too much, national life expectancy will tend to be found to be much lower. In other words, mass-religiosity is bad news for longevity. As general medical science and advanced technology is tied in with good health as well as lack of poverty, there are a multitude of reasons as to why religion might be negatively correlated with long life. The only sure thing is that when the author of Proverbs 9:10-11 and 10:27 said that God-fearing folk live longer, he hadn't anticipated the rise of mass secularisation!

4. Solutions

Despite the practical necessity of birth control and disease prevention, the moral responsibility we have towards (a) the future of our children and (b) our stewardship of the planet, many religions have opposed birth control for various superstitious reasons.

"Abortion, Birth Control and Contraception" by Vexen Crabtree (2013)

Contraceptives and sex education are two key tools in the eradication of grassroots poverty. Another is the way in which developing countries sometimes leapfrog decades of technological development. For example in Africa, the adoption of mobile phones means that Africa has not needed to build a telecoms infrastructure, and wireless technologies may mean it doesn't have to build one in the future, either. But gadgets derived from science will not result in an easy cure for massive overpopulation; it must always go hand in hand with sex education and contraceptives to control fertility rates. Unfortunately for Africa, growing Christian fundamentalism and Islamisation of the continent has meant that religious forces are now threatening the basics of sex education41; both competing groups argue against many of the findings of modern science. It seems that the developing world is plagued by two of Humanities' worst enemies: ignorance of sex education, and superstition. If these forces overwhelm the educators, then the cultural war I warned about above between the haves and have-nots of the world, is again on the agenda despite the fact that at the moment fertility controls are reducing poverty.

A stunning 135m people escaped dire poverty between 1999 and 2004. [...] Perhaps the biggest change affecting people's lives has little to do, at least directly, with development policy or public spending. People in poor countries are now able to exert more control over their own fertility, and hence over the size of their families.

"The world's silver lining" in The Economist (2008 Jan 26)30

If women and men are sterilized after having three children then the only way to have more children, if parents wish, is to adopt. There are strong arguments against this idea from a human-rights stance, but there are limits on all freedoms. In any democracy, people are not free to endanger and undermine the future of other people. Or at least, that's the idea, and such moral obligations are present in many circumstances and are sometimes translated into legal obligations. Continued human population growth will continue to harm all people, the whole planet, in a gradually increasingly severe manner. The more people there are, the greater the problems due to overpopulation, including degradation of everyone's quality of life. It is a human-rights and free-will issue: we are not free to harm others, and, that means, we should not be free to have as many children as we like. This is the moral issue. But as most people have continued to have too many children, it must eventually become a legal issue. Sterilisation is one of the very few ways to effectively protect future generations from the poor choices of the current generation.

Current edition: 2019 Mar 0542
Second edition 2013 Sep 12
Originally published 2006 Aug 07
Parent page: The Human Truth Foundation

All #tags used on this page - click for more:

#birth_control #china #christianity #demographics #disease #dogma #economics #education #germany #health #hong_kong #islam #italy #japan #life #longevity #overpopulation #pensions #philippines #population #portugal #religion #sex #sexuality #UK #USA

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References: (What's this?)

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  6. Eurostat (2007).^
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  8. Added to this page on 2013 Sep 05.^
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  12. New Scientist (2009 May 16). p28-29article by David Attenborough Attenborough is a veteran TV naturalist and academic.^
  13. Prof. Chris Rapley in The Observer, 2007 Jul 22 article "Science chief: cut birthrate to save Earth", at URL[...]2132089,00.html accessed 2007 Jul 24.^
  14. Donnelly (2013). Chapter 4 "Equal Concern and Respect" p64. Violating article 12 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.^
  15. Eurostat (2007) .^
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  18. Added to this page on 2013 Sep 12.^^
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  21. Tucker (2011). p830.^
  22. Russell (1957). p57-58. Also see editor's comment.^
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  24. "What Causes Religion and Superstitions?" by Vexen Crabtree (2013)^
  25. Barber, Nigel Ph.D. (2011) article in Psychology Today (2011 Jul 14).^
  26. National Secular Society news article "Catholic Church fails to stop Philippines contraception bill" (2012 Dec 18). Accessed 2013 Oct 19. Added to this page 2013 Oct 23.^
  27. Added to this page on 2013 Sep 02.^
  28. UN (2013). Table 14. Births per woman (2012), expressed as deviance (positive or negative) from the value of 2.0.^
  29. UN (2013). Table 14.^
  30. "The world's silver lining" (2008 Jan 26). In newspaper The Economist.^^
  31. Hughes, Gordon & Fergusson, Ross (2004). p122.^
  32. UN (2017). Dashboard 2.^
  33. Green (2007). p113.^^
  34. Myers (1999). p51.^
  35. Gilovich (1991). p138.^
  36. The Economist (2008 Oct 11). Article "Africa: There is hope".^
  37. The scattergraph has been updated from 2002 to 2009/2011 data and the associated text rewritten.^
  38. Nukariya (1913) .^
  39. Nukariya (1913). Digital location 110-111. Introduction pages. Kindle edition.^
  40. Gallup (2009) on The survey question was "Is religion an important part of your daily life?" and results are charted for those who said "yes". 1000 adults was polled in 114 countries. Life Expectancy statistics come from the United Nations' Human Development Report (2011)43.^
  41. "Abortion, Birth Control and Contraception" by Vexen Crabtree (2013)^
  42. 2019 Mar 05: Removed a few sections and made the rest of the page more balanced. More work needs to be done to make it more respectable.^
  43. UN (2011) .^

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